How are the performances of 26 sectors being shaped?

It was just five or six years ago that growth of 20-25 per cent in the IT sector was considered normal. Today, the rate has fallen to around 5 per cent. In the shopping mall sector, eye-catching growth figures, such as when it set a record of 41 per cent in 1987, are a long a way in the past.  Because today the normal growth rate for the sector is around 10 per cent....

It is possible to say that “the norm has changed” for many sectors. Our survey of 26 sectors lays this out very clearly. It is striking that in 13 sectors the parameters for both “normal” and “rapid” growth have fallen considerably when compared with five years ago. In ten sectors the average growth rate has remained the same, while in three sectors it has accelerated.

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WHAT IS THE NEW NORM?
When one looks at today’s “new norms” in sectors, one finds some strikingly different figures. For example, in the shopping mall sector, the new norm is less than half what would have been regarded as normal five years ago.

Multi Development Türkiye CEO Hulusi Belgü says: “The sector recorded very high growth rates in 2007 and 2008. It grew by 41 per cent in 2007 and 29 per cent in 2008. Today, the norm is around 10 per cent.” He adds; “As the number of shopping malls has increased, the sector has matured. For that reason, the percentage changes have begun to decline.

In the first nine months, the sector recorded growth of 11 per cent. This figure is expected to reach 15 per cent by the end of the year.~
” In the fruit juice sector, the new norm is an annual rate of 5-6 per cent, whereas five years ago the rate was 15 per cent.” Ebru Akdağ, the General Secretary of the Fruit Juice Industry Association, says: “In the past, a 15 per cent growth rate was considered normal but now the natural expectation has become around 5 per cent.” She lists the main reasons for the change as the economic crisis, cutbacks in expenditure and a decline in consumption outside the home.

THE SECTORS WHICH ARE SLOWING
In many sectors, the decline is actually the result of Turkey’s general performance. Keskinoğlu Marketing Group President Keskin Keskinoğlu says that in the white meat sector the normal growth rate is now 3-5 per cent and that they describe figures of over 10 per cent as “rapid” growth, whereas five years ago the figures were triple these.

BESD-BİR Board Chair Sait Koca says that the reasons for the slowdown in white meat are as follows: “Consumption is close to saturation point, the state is not providing sufficient support, costs and imports of red meat are rising but sales prices are not increasing but remaining the same.”

In the fast moving consumer goods sector, the decline is related to the economy as a whole. Iglo Türkiye Chair Caner Tunaman says: “In the fast moving consumer goods sector, what is considered a normal rate of growth is the same as the rate of growth of Turkey. We can say that the normal rate of growth is currently 3.5-4 per cent. Any rate more than 50 per cent above the country growth rate is considered good and fast.”

WHICH HAVE ACCELERATED?
Over the last five years, the growth rates in some sectors have accelerated. For example, five years ago, in the fuel sector growth in a band of 3-5 per cent was considered normal and over 8 percent regarded as fast, but today the rates are two percentage points higher. ~
The new norm in the sector is 4-5 per cent, whereas 10 per cent and above is regarded as fast... Starpet Deputy Board Chair Murat Okalin says: “Our sector grows by an average of 5 per cent a year, according to the number of new vehicles on the roads and any increase in use of the existing vehicle park.

The diesel market is growing while consumption of petrol is declining. When the rate of growth is 10 per cent or above, we say that the market is growing rapidly.” Furniture is one of the sectors which is growing faster than five years ago.

Çilek Mobilya General Manager Muzaffer Çilek explains the reasons for the change as follows: “Even if it was not as much as in the rest of the world, the crisis did have a negative effect on Turkey. For this reason, there are important differences between the situation today and five years ago. The new housing that is being built is having a positive impact on our sector.”

HOW ARE THE PERFORMANCES IN 2013?
When we look at the first nine months of 2013, it is possible to rank sectors according to the new norms. According to this year’s data, leasing, civil aviation and the tourism sector are amongst those which are “growing rapidly”.
The sectors which are “growing more than normal” are insurance with growth of 23.8 per cent, clothing with 20 per cent, plastics with 10 per cent and the insulation sector, also with 10 per cent.

“Any rise or fall in GDP has an impact on investments and thus on the volume of business in our sector,” says Bülent Taşar, the head of the Financial Leasing Association. “When we look at the ten year averages for the leasing sector then we can see a clear stability,” Today, 15-20 is generally considered normal in the sector, whereas over the first six months of the year the growth rate was 27 per cent.~

The third quarter figures for the plastics sector show that it is growing at a normal rate. Sem Plastic General Manager Yavuz Eroğlu says: “Growth was 9 per cent over the first nine months of the year and we are expecting the same level of growth at the end of the year. A growth rate of 8-10 per cent is anyway considered normal.”